The raw data behind the story 'Forecasting the race for the House' https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

house_national_forecast

Format

A dataframe with 588 rows representing district-level results of the classic, lite, and deluxe house forecasts since 2018/08/01 and 11 variables.

forecastdate

date of the forecast

party

the party of the forecast

model

the model of the forecast

win_probability

the probability of the corresponding party winning

mean_seats

the mean of the number of seats

median_seats

the median number of seats

p10_seats

the top 10 percentile of number of seats

p90_seats

the top 90 percentile of number of seats

margin

unknown

p10_margin

the margin of p10_seats

p90_margin

the margin of p90_seats

Source

FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Methodology: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/

Note

The original dataset included a meaningless column called "state", and all variables under this column was "US". So this column was removed.

See also